Next Sunday: Winning talks & Bullshit walks

Next Sunday the red lights above the finish line in Albert Park will turn off and the 2018 F1 season finally kicks off. Not all drivers will be able to see the red lights above the circuit because of the hideous halo, but that's a different story....

The car-launches and winter test period on Circuit de Catalunya showed us that 2017 champs Mercedes, 2017 runner up Scuderia Ferrari and Red Bull Racing improved their car a lot. Speculations about their pace are swirling around the paddock but nobody really knows who will be in front and if Ferrari or Red Bull can end the Mercedes dominance in F1.

Mercedes on the hunt for 5th title

Mercedes again looks very strong and won last season. Because they have the strongest engine of the grid, they can rely on a good performance and speed. They didn't change a lot on their aerodynamic concept and because of that they were able further tune and shave their car on all aspects.

Rumours say that this years Mercedes W09 is over 1 second faster then the competition. When you look at their fastest lap times of last weeks testing you see that their fastest lap time set on medium tyres was 1:18.949 min. It was driven by Valtteri Bottas. Last years quickest lap of Bottas was 1:19.310 min and set on super soft tyres, which is 2 compounds faster then a medium tyre compound. This difference of 0.359 sec is huge set on a much slower tyre.

The matchbook shows that Mercedes now has won 4 constructor titles in a row just like McLaren did with Ayrton Senna and Alain Prost form 1998 till 1991. This season Mercedes can win their 5th in a row constructors title, something only one other F1 team ever was capable of: Ferrari.

Ferrari can win their 17th title

This years SF71H looks to be very quick. Ferrari has worked  hard on aerodynamic development of their car. Just like the Renault engine, the Ferrari engine is no match for the Mercedes power unit, so Ferrari can only compensate their lack of engine power with their aero-package.

The pace and reliability of the Ferrari was fantastic during testing and Sebastian Vettel set the fastest lap ever on the Catalunya circuit. On this fastest lap time of 1:17.182 min, Vettel used the new pink hyper soft Pirelli tyres on the SF71. Those hyper soft tyres are a lot faster then the super soft tyres Kimi Raikkonen used on the fastest lap of last years winter testing. Nevertheless it was 1.452 sec. faster then last years quickest lap time set by Raikkonen.

Scuderia Ferrari can win their 17th constructors title this season. Their last constructors championship win was won in 2008, already 10 years ago. If Ferrari fails to bring the constructors title to Manarello, they will still hold the record's of most F1 constructor titles in a row, because they did it 6 times in a row from 1999 till 2004 with Michael Schumacher.

Red Bull back to the top?

Last season Red Bull showed their incredible development skill again. The Red Bull RB13 was nowhere at the start of the season. Daniel Ricciardo had to retire at his home grand prix in Melbourne and Max Verstappen finished 5th. Later on in the season the car got a lot quicker, but big reliability issues hold them off to score some decent points. The RB13 retired 13 times last season.

This years car the Red Bull RB14 should be a lot better, as it's said that master F1 car designer Adrian Newey is back at his drawing board to help out the Austrian team. From the looks of the car you'd say it must be a winner. The car looks very sophsticated. Red Bull shaved off the body to reduce the weight of the car, the bardgeboards and sidepods are much more aerodynamic then last years car. Hopefully Renault also did their homework over the winter so Red Bull Racing can start of like a rocket.

The 2018 F1 season is already Red Bull's 14th season in Formula 1. They won 4 constructors titles in a row in this short period, which is an remarkable achievement. They have the technology, the money and the drivers to win their 5th title, but then their reliability must be flawless.

Who will be the big surprise?

In a week time we will know who will start from pole in the 2018 Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix. Everybody will think that Lewis Hamilton will be on pole again, but we have a lot contenders who are very motivated to hold him off. Fernando Alonso showed on the last day of testing that the McLaren MCL33 is a very fast car, will he be the big surprise of next week qualifying sesson and race?

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