What to expect from the 2018 Russian F1 GP
Two weeks ago Ferrari had to make a bow for the strong performance of the Mercedes W09 driven by Lewis Hamilton in Singapore.
In this second "night" race of the season Ferrari was not only beaten by Mercedes driver Hamilton, but also messed up their strategy to also lose from Red Bull Racing driver Max Verstappen and lose 10 more valuable WC-points.
According to historical statistics Sebastian Vettel's winning changes were huge in Singapore. In fact the whole world was counting on a win in Singapore. Especially because Vettel messed up in Italy.
The gap between Hamilton and Vettel has grown to 40 points now and the championship still has 6 races to go. Vettel will have to win all 6 races to score his 5th drivers WC, if Hamilton finishes 2nd each race.
Next stop is the 5th Russian Grand Prix held on the Semi-street circuit of Sochi. What more to expect from the 2018 Singapore F1 GP?
2018 Russian GP facts & Figures
The first Russian F1 Grand Prix was held in 2014 on same circuit around the former Winter Olympic games village in Sochi. It was won by Lewis Hamilton and was his 10th win for Mercedes. His former teammate Nico Rosberg finished 2nd for Mercedes that year.
Out of all drivers that won in Russia, Lewis Hamilton won the most races. He won 2 grand prix, Nico Rosberg won once, just like Valtteri Bottas.
It will not become as a surprise to you that from a the team point of view, Mercedes has won the most races in Sochi, because they won all 4! Valtteri Bottas won his maiden grand prix in Sochi, just last year.
All four earlier Russian Grand Prix races before had a safety car period. So we accept at least 1 this year.
Sochi Street circuit
The Sochi International Street Circuit is again a street circuit, just like Singapore was 2 weeks ago, but the circuit layout is very different. It's not that twisted, but also has a lot of 90 degree corners. The track is very wide and is 5.848 km long.
The Sochi track is driven clockwise and has 18 turns, 11 right-handed and 7 left-handed corners. The most demanding corner, which takes the most out of the tyres, is Turn 3: a multi apex left-hander.
The fastest corner is turn 11. Cars go around 325 km/h there. The slowest turn is turn 14 were the cars drive through with a speed of 90 km/h.
The Sochi circuit was well-known for being very smooth and slippery when it made its debut in 2014, but since then the asphalt has matured – albeit not quite as much as expected, due to the extremes of temperature between summer and winter in Sochi.
2018 Russian Grand Prix Infographic
Wear and degradation levels are generally low, but the Hypersoft is effectively two steps softer than the softest compound brought to Russia last year: the 2017 Ultrasoft.
Because of the 2 DRS zones and the cars of today generate much more downforce, it should be less difficult to overtake than earlier editions. Most overtaking will be done at the end of the DRS zones.
Because of being a street circuit the track is very ‘green’ in the first sessions.
The official lap record in Sochi is 1:36.844 min driven by Kimi Raikkonen last year. He finished that race as 3rd. The cars of this year are about 2 seconds faster on 1 lap, so the track record will be broken again this year under dry conditions.
What happened in last years 2017 Russian F1 GP?
Sochi Autodrom, Sochi, Russia. Sunday 30 April 2017. Valtteri Bottas; Sebastian Vettel & Kimi Raikkonen
In last year’s Russian Grand Prix we saw Fernando Alonso retiring his McLaren on the formation lap due to a Honda power unit failure.
Both Ferrari drivers Sebastian Vettel and Kimi Raikkonen started from front row. It was the first front row lockout for the team from Maranello in almost a decade.
Although Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas started from 3rd he was able to slipstream both Ferrari's right from the start to capture the lead in the breaking zone for turn 2.
In turn 2, which is a tight turn, a few drivers again wouldn't give up their space and had a collision to retire with collision damage. These first corner collisions happen almost every edition.
With a few laps to go Sebastian Vettel came very close to Bottas, when the Finnish driver out-braked himself and had gone wide in turn 14. This mistake caused some huge flat spot on his front tyres..
Last year’s winning strategy was a one-stopper: Mercedes driver Valtteri Bottas took his first-ever victory in Formula 1 by going from the Ultrasoft to the Supersoft on lap 27.
Russian F1 GP 2018 Tyres
The Hypersoft – the fastest and softest tyre in the Pirelli Formula 1 range, which has broken lap records at every race it visits – now comes to Russia, in combination with the Ultrasoft and Soft. This is the same nomination as Singapore, with a ‘step’ between the compounds, because the Supersoft is missed out.
This should again have the effect of opening up the strategy possibilities by ensuring quite a wide but equally spaced performance gap between the compounds. However, with Russia being a very different type of track to Singapore, there will be many unpredictable elements still to discover from the weekend.
The front-right tyre works hardest over the course of the 5.848-kilometre lap, which puts
the emphasis on traction and braking.
Mercedes is the top team with the least amount of Hypersoft tyres. This might give them a disadvantage during the race, because they have to qualify on this tyre compound to be part of the top 6.
Selected sets for the 2018 Russian F1 GP
Russian GP Weather Forecast
The weather forecast for upcoming race weekend in Sochi is looking very good. Temperatures will be around 23ºC and Friday, Saturday and Sunday will be dry during daytime.
Friday night there could be some rain, which will probably wash away all rubber and grip the slippery track gained from FP1 & FP2. The humidity will be quite high the whole weekend with 70%.
On race day the weather looks to be ideal with a temperature of 24ºC and a light breeze the whole day. The humidity of around 70% will make it nevertheless very humid and quite though for the drivers to perform.
Who will be on the 2018 Russian F1 GP podium?
Kimi Raikkonen, Sebastian Vettel and Valteri Bottas in the press conference Bahrain 2018
Whether or not Ferrari still has the quickest car is yet to be seen.
When you look at last race weekend in Singapore, it seems like Mercedes has been sandbagging during the free practice sessions and now has the quicker car again.
Pole position isn’t very important on the Sochi track, Looking at the past 4 venues it even looks to be a disadvantage. Almost all pole sitters were slip streamed and passed right after the start before turn 2 of the race.
Sebastian Vettel will be very keen to win this race and Ferrari hopefully will be on full strength to support him. Since the death of Ferrari boss Marchionne and the exit news about Raikkonen, the title seems to be slipping away from Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari.
Rumours say that the Red Bull RB14 isn't being developed anymore and all focus is already on next 2019 F1 season, were the Honda power unit should do the trick for the Red Bull team to become a real title contender again.
All four earlier editions were won by Mercedes and the track seems to suite Valtteri Bottas very much, while Lewis Hamilton last years performance was one of the less impressive drives that season.
That's why Vettel and Ferrari should make a fist and give it all they've got to win this race in Russia and fight back back at least 8 points to Hamilton's championship lead. When Hamilton finishes 4th like he did last year the gap will shrink with 13 point to 27 in total.
Because of the weather conditions and track layout, changes are big that we have to swallow one of the most dull races of the season this Sunday, it all depends on what happens in lap 1.
To keep the championship alive my prediction is:
1. Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari), 2. Kimi Raikkonen (Ferrari), 3. Valterri Bottas (Mercedes)
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