What to expect from the 2020 pre-season F1 testing?

The 2020 Formula 1 season is getting closer and with the pre-season testing set to kick-off on the 19th of February at Barcelona, there are a lot of questions which need to be answered. Who can challenge Lewis Hamilton’s dominance? according to the odds of F1 Betting with 888, Red Bull and Max Verstappen, and we can see why that is the case.

The normal occurrence regarding expectations for a new season is to reach some conclusions starting from what we saw in the last few rounds of the previous year. Which, in this case, was a strong Red Bull finishing off 2019 with a win and two podiums by the talented Dutchman in the last three races.

The RB16, Red Bull’s challenger for the 2020 season, might produce a close fight if all its components continue to progress as they did with last year’s RB15. The Honda-powered Red Bull evolved significantly last year, to the point that at Brazil, it was the Power Unit which set it apart from its competitors.

For 2020, Red Bull’s motorsport advisor Helmut Marko said the team was two weeks ahead of schedule on the RB16. Marko even went on to say that the team had no excuses if a title challenge was not produced. Pre-season at Barcelona will be huge for Red Bull and especially Honda, who have the pressure of maintaining last year’s level and even increasing it.

Of course, Mercedes and Ferrari will try to bring their best to the table, although both parties have admitted some issues have emerged when designing their 2020 machines.

Mercedes’ engine boss, Andy Cowell, said that the German team was fighting against “a few little issues” with their Power Unit. The team presented their 2020 livery on a car from past years and only introduced their new sponsors. The Mercedes W11, the car to beat according to many, will be presented on the 14th of February.

The Silver Arrows are expected to have a similar philosophy to last year’s car, which won 15 out of the 21 races in the calendar.

On the red side, there have been reports about trouble with the aerodynamics of Ferrari’s 2020 car, the SF1000, which was presented on the 12th of February at the Romolo Valli Theatre, Italy. The new Ferrari seems similar to the SF90 from 2019, but Team Principal Mattia Binotto and four-time World Champion Sebastian Vettel said that the new car has some extreme solutions compared to last year.

There were comments made by former driver Matteo Bobbi about Ferrari putting two versions of the SF1000 in the upcoming pre-season testing at Barcelona like Mercedes did last year. It could mean that in terms of aerodynamic solutions, Ferrari can still add some tweaks to their package.

Last year’s Ferrari, the SF90, dominated in terms of straight-line speed but suffered in tracks which demanded aerodynamic efficiency.

Piero Ferrari, vice chairman of Ferrari and son of the company founder Enzo Ferrari, talked about that occurrence and said that the team will have a completely redesigned car for 2020 in relation to last year’s challenger.

Of course, completely redesigning a Grand Prix-winning car in a year with regulatory stability is not common, but it is understandable when we look at the problems Ferrari faced in most of the tracks in 2019.

Ferrari’s redesigned car —although there have been reports of some aero setbacks— was expected since Mercedes’ and Red Bull’s well-balanced 2019 cars were able to compete in tracks with different configurations and the SF90 was not.

Coming from such tight companies, these comments might be part of a typical strategy which we have seen before, especially last year, where teams look to put pressure on the shoulders of others.

Regarding the midfield, McLaren should be the team to look for and watch if they can take a huge leap and join the top-three battle or at least pull away from their midfield rivals. Racing Point might have an interesting winter testing in front of them, as the team is working to be competitive in 2020 but is already looking ahead to their Aston Martin evolution from 2021 on.

Renault and their pairing of Daniel Ricciardo and Esteban Ocon might, and should, produce some improvements since the French team is coming off of a struggling 2019 season. Ocon has some pressure on him as he’s been out of the sport for a year and has to confirm he is still a solid driver. The Australian, on the other hand, should have a good year ahead since he´s established inside the team and does not need to adapt like he had to last year.

Winter testing for Renault should be highly important since they are one of the teams who had suffered more reliability setbacks in the last few years.

The 2020 pre-season testing should be fun, especially with the teams unable to hide their cars behind screens, like in past years.

Mainly, the big teams should be looking for reliability when they enter the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya from the 19th to the 21st of February for the first three-day test.

It will be normal to see teams go for a high number of laps instead of trying to find the fastest lap times, at least for the first week of testing.

Big conclusions will be tough to reach even after the second week of running —26th to 28th of February—, since teams normally are focusing on different aspects of their car and testing different groups on their packages.

Overall, winter testing can expose which team might have a rough year —Williams missed the first couple of days of the 2019 testing and could not recover from it—, but it does not always show the reality of the season ahead —ask the experts who predicted Ferrari to swamp Mercedes last year—. Regarding the fight at the top, Q3 in Australia is more likely to really show who will be the team to beat at least in the first few rounds.

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