---
description: Max Verstappen starts the 2026 Bahrain F1 GP from pole at Sepang ahead of Hamilton, with grid penalties and tyre strategy set to shape the race.
title: 2026 Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix Starting Grid at Sepang
image: https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SI202610030561-UHD-990x660.jpg
---

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# Starting Grid 2026 Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix

![Starting Grid 2026 Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SI202610030561-UHD-990x660.jpg)

[Leopold](https://www.f1-fansite.com/author/leopold-pleijsier/) 3 Oct  3 min read <details><summary>Share</summary>

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**Event:** [Bahrain Grand Prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-calendar/bahrain-grand-prix/ "Bahrain Grand Prix F1 Race info")  
**Track:** [Sepang International Circuit](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-circuits/sepang-circuit-kuala-lumpur-malaysia/)

**Starts at: 18:00 Local | 09:00 CET | 08:00 UK | 00:00 LA | 16:00 Tokyo**

## Verstappen Holds the Advantage, but Sepang Rarely Stays Simple

Max Verstappen has the best seat in the house for the 2026 Bahrain Grand Prix, but Sepang's history suggests pole position is an advantage rather than a guarantee. The [Red Bull](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/red-bull-racing/) driver starts alongside Lewis Hamilton, with championship leader Kimi Antonelli directly behind them in third — coincidentally the same grid position from which Verstappen won Formula 1's previous race here nine years ago.

### Front Row Holds the Historical Advantage

Across the **19 Grands Prix previously held at Sepang, 47% were won from pole position and another 26% from P2**. In other words, almost three quarters of the circuit's races have been won by one of the two drivers on the front row. P3 has produced just 5.3% of the victories and P4 another 11%, while only 11% have come from sixth or further back.

That makes the Verstappen-Hamilton front row particularly significant. Verstappen starts from the traditional pole side on the left, but there is a long enough run towards Sepang's wide Turn 1-2 complex for Hamilton to attack. Multiple lines are possible through the opening sequence and anyone emerging badly from Turn 2 can immediately come under pressure again on the run towards Turn 4.

### Antonelli Starts From Verstappen’s 2017 Winning Spot

Antonelli should not be discounted either. Verstappen himself demonstrated what is possible from P3 in **2017**, when he started behind Hamilton and Kimi Räikkönen, moved past [Daniel Ricciardo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/daniel-ricciardo/) at the start and then overtook Hamilton for the lead on Lap 4 before controlling the race.

Nine years later, Verstappen starts where Hamilton did that afternoon — while Antonelli occupies Verstappen's old launch position.

### Grid Penalties Reshape the Order

The grid behind them has already been reshuffled by penalties.

**Isack Hadjar qualified third but drops five places to eighth** after taking a new internal combustion engine, promoting Antonelli, Charles Leclerc, [Lando Norris](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/lando-norris-information-statistics/), [Oscar Piastri](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/oscar-piastri/) and George Russell.

is set for the rear of the grid after multiple power-unit changes, while [Franco Colapinto](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/franco-colapinto/) carries a combined 15-place penalty.

That leaves Hadjar as one of the drivers to watch in the opening stint. The Red Bull has been quick all weekend, but he now has traffic to clear.

### Tyre Strategy Could Decide the Race

And clearing traffic may be only half the problem. **Tyre degradation could define this race.**

Sepang combines an abrasive surface with enormous lateral loads and extreme heat, particularly through the long corners that punish the front-left tyre. Pirelli's C2, C3 and C4 compounds have all shown significant wear during practice, making a two-stop strategy a realistic option rather than merely an aggressive alternative.

That opens several strategic branches. Starting on the medium offers the most conventional balance between launch performance and stint length, while the hard could allow someone to run deep and wait for a Safety Car, Virtual Safety Car or weather change.

The soft has looked more durable than initially expected and could become an attacking weapon for a short opening or final stint. Leclerc also enters Sunday with only one fresh set of hards after using a C2 in FP3, potentially giving Ferrari different strategic possibilities across its two cars.

### McLaren Could Come Alive on Race Pace

McLaren may become particularly relevant once the race settles down.

Norris and Piastri did not seriously threaten Verstappen over one lap, but their long-run pace looked considerably stronger during practice. Starting together from the third row gives McLaren the option to split strategies if degradation develops differently from expectations.

The **23-second pit-lane loss** means nobody will want to make an unnecessary stop, but Sepang is one of the circuits where fresh tyres can repay that cost. Passing is realistic, particularly under braking for Turn 15 at the end of the long back straight, so teams do not have to defend track position at all costs if their tyres begin to collapse.

An undercut could be powerful, but stopping too early risks creating an extra stint on a circuit where thermal degradation can punish aggression.

### Sepang Weather Remains the Wild Card

Then comes Sepang's traditional wild card: the weather.

Malaysia's tropical conditions can turn almost without warning. Rain threatened repeatedly during Friday practice without properly reaching the circuit, but history has shown how quickly a dry [Malaysian grand prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-calendar/malaysian-grand-prix-f1-race-information/) can turn into a strategy lottery.

One shower at the wrong moment could make every carefully calculated tyre model irrelevant.

So Verstappen begins with the strongest historical position, Hamilton has one of Sepang's most successful starting slots alongside him, and Antonelli starts from the very place Verstappen used to win here in 2017.

Ferrari has two cars in striking distance, McLaren appears stronger over a race stint than its qualifying pace suggested, and Hadjar has a fast Red Bull but several cars to pass.

Pole gives Verstappen control of the first move. **Sepang's heat, tyre degradation, overtaking opportunities and unpredictable weather will decide how long he can keep it.**

## Starting Grid 2026 Bahrain GP

Start / finish · Turn 1 ahead ↑

Race start15:00 +08+08MY TIME

Distance56 laps× 5.543 km ≈ 310 km

Won from pole9 of 19 · 47%Furthest back: P8, [Fernando Alonso](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/fernando-alonso/) (2012)

[![F1-Fansite.com](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/logo.png)**F1-Fansite.com**Grid, penalties and qualifying timesf1-fansite.com/f1-result/starting-grid-2026-bahrain-formula-1-grand-prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-result/starting-grid-2026-bahrain-formula-1-grand-prix/)

1![Max Verstappen](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Max-Verstappen-2026.png)![Netherlands](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/nl.svg?v=2)#3 [MaxVerstappen](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/max-verstappen-information-statistics/)**1:35.130**Pole−0.428 vs Hadjar (Q3)

![Red Bull logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Red-Bull-logo-330x126.png) [Red Bull](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/red-bull-racing/) [Red Bull RB22](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/red-bull-rb22-specs-facts/)

[![Red Bull RB22](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Red-Bull-RB22-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled-330x75.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Red-Bull-RB22-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled.png "P1 · Max Verstappen · Red Bull Red Bull RB22")

2![Lewis Hamilton](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lewis-Hamilton-2026.png)![United Kingdom](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/gb.svg?v=2)#44 [LewisHamilton](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/lewis-hamilton/)**1:35.428**+0.298s−0.238 vs Leclerc (Q3)

![Ferrari logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Ferrari-logo-162x220.png) [Ferrari](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/ferrari-f1-information-statistics/) [Ferrari SF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/ferrari-sf-26/)

[![Ferrari SF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Ferrari-SF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x72.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Ferrari-SF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P2 · Lewis Hamilton · Ferrari Ferrari SF-26")

3![Kimi Antonelli](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Kimi-Antonelli-2026.png)![Italy](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/it.svg?v=2)#12 [KimiAntonelli](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/kimi-antonelli/)**1:35.631**+0.501s−0.240 vs Russell (Q3)

![Mercedes logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Mercedes-Logo.svg_-220x220.webp) [Mercedes](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/mercedes/) [Mercedes W17](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/mercedes-w17-specs-facts/)

[![Mercedes W17](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/mercedes-w17-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x77.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/mercedes-w17-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P3 · Kimi Antonelli · Mercedes Mercedes W17")

4![Charles Leclerc](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Charles-Leclerc.png)![Monaco](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/mc.svg?v=2)#16 [CharlesLeclerc](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/charles-leclerc-information-statistics/)**1:35.666**+0.536s+0.238 vs Hamilton (Q3)

![Ferrari logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Ferrari-logo-162x220.png) [Ferrari](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/ferrari-f1-information-statistics/) [Ferrari SF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/ferrari-sf-26/)

[![Ferrari SF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Ferrari-SF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x72.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Ferrari-SF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P4 · Charles Leclerc · Ferrari Ferrari SF-26")

5![Lando Norris](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lando-Norris-2026.png)![United Kingdom](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/gb.svg?v=2)#1 [LandoNorris](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/lando-norris-information-statistics/)**1:35.757**+0.627s−0.005 vs Piastri (Q3)

![McLaren logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/McLaren-F1-logo-330x181.png) [McLaren](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/mclaren/) [McLaren MCL40](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/mclaren-mcl40-specs-facts/)

[![McLaren MCL40](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/McLaren-MCL40-sideview-cut-330x74.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/McLaren-MCL40-sideview-cut-scaled.png "P5 · Lando Norris · McLaren McLaren MCL40")

6![Oscar Piastri](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Oscar-Piastri-2026.png)![Australia](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/au.svg?v=2)#81 [OscarPiastri](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/oscar-piastri/)**1:35.762**+0.632s+0.005 vs Norris (Q3)

![McLaren logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/McLaren-F1-logo-330x181.png) [McLaren](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/mclaren/) [McLaren MCL40](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/mclaren-mcl40-specs-facts/)

[![McLaren MCL40](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/McLaren-MCL40-sideview-cut-330x74.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/McLaren-MCL40-sideview-cut-scaled.png "P6 · Oscar Piastri · McLaren McLaren MCL40")

7![George Russell](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/George-Russell-2026.png)![United Kingdom](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/gb.svg?v=2)#63 [GeorgeRussell](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/george-russell-information-statistics/)**1:35.871**+0.741s+0.240 vs Antonelli (Q3)

![Mercedes logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Mercedes-Logo.svg_-220x220.webp) [Mercedes](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/mercedes/) [Mercedes W17](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/mercedes-w17-specs-facts/)

[![Mercedes W17](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/mercedes-w17-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x77.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/mercedes-w17-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P7 · George Russell · Mercedes Mercedes W17")

8![Isack Hadjar](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Isack-Hadjar-2026-2.png)![France](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/fr.svg?v=2)#6 [IsackHadjar](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/isack-hadjar/)**1:35.558**+0.428s+0.428 vs Verstappen (Q3)Grid penalty

![Red Bull logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Red-Bull-logo-330x126.png) [Red Bull](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/red-bull-racing/) [Red Bull RB22](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/red-bull-rb22-specs-facts/)

[![Red Bull RB22](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Red-Bull-RB22-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled-330x75.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Red-Bull-RB22-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled.png "P8 · Isack Hadjar · Red Bull Red Bull RB22")

9![Pierre Gasly](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Pierre-Gasly.png)![France](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/fr.svg?v=2)#10 [PierreGasly](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/pierre-gasly-information-statistics/)**1:37.210**+2.080s−0.005 vs Colapinto (Q1)

![Alpine logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Alpine-logo-1440x900-1-330x206.png) [Alpine](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/alpine-f1-team/) [Alpine A526](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/alpine-a526-specs-facts/)

[![Alpine A526](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Alpine-A526-sideview-cut-330x75.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Alpine-A526-sideview-cut.png "P9 · Pierre Gasly · Alpine Alpine A526")

10![Gabriel Bortoleto](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Gabriel-Borteleto-2026-100.png)![Brazil](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/br.svg?v=2)#5 [GabrielBortoleto](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/gabriel-bortoleto/)**1:37.673**+2.543s−0.864 vs Hülkenberg (Q1)

![Audi logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Audi-F1-Team-logo-330x112.png) [Audi](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/audi-f1-team-stats-info/) [Audi R26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/audi-r26-specs-facts/)

[![Audi R26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Audi-R26-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled-330x75.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Audi-R26-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled.png "P10 · Gabriel Bortoleto · Audi Audi R26")

11![Liam Lawson](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Liam-Lawson-2026-1.png)![New Zealand](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/nz.svg?v=2)#30 [LiamLawson](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/liam-lawson-f1-stats-info/)**1:37.023**Q2−0.551 vs Lindblad (Q1)

![Racing Bulls logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Racing-Bulls-logo-265x220.png) [Racing Bulls](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/racing-bulls-f1-stats-info/) [VCARB 03](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/racing-bulls-vcarb-03/)

[![VCARB 03](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/VCARB-03-right-facing-cropped-330x74.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/VCARB-03-right-facing-cropped.png "P11 · Liam Lawson · Racing Bulls VCARB 03")

12![Fernando Alonso](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Fernando-Alonso.png)![Spain](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/es.svg?v=2)#14 [FernandoAlonso](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/fernando-alonso/)**1:37.220**Q2−0.346 vs Stroll (Q2)

![Aston Martin logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Aston-Martin-F1-Team-330x75.png) [Aston Martin](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/aston-martin-f1-team-information-statistics/) [Aston Martin AMR26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/aston-martin-amr26-specs-facts/)

[![Aston Martin AMR26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AMR26-sideview-cut-330x72.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AMR26-sideview-cut-scaled.png "P12 · Fernando Alonso · Aston Martin Aston Martin AMR26")

13![Carlos Sainz](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Carlos-Sainz-2026.png)![Spain](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/es.svg?v=2)#55 [CarlosSainz](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/carlos-sainz-jr-information-statistics/)**1:37.527**Q2−0.949 vs Albon (Q1)

![Williams logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Williams-logo-330x184.png) [Williams](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/williams/) [Williams FW48](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/williams-fw48-specs-facts/)

[![Williams FW48](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Williams-FW48-transparent-cropped-normalised-330x74.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Williams-FW48-transparent-cropped-normalised.png "P13 · Carlos Sainz · Williams Williams FW48")

14![Lance Stroll](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Aston-Martin-Lance-Stroll-2.png)![Canada](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/ca.svg?v=2)#18 [LanceStroll](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/lance-stroll-information-statistics/)**1:37.566**Q2+0.346 vs Alonso (Q2)

![Aston Martin logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Aston-Martin-F1-Team-330x75.png) [Aston Martin](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/aston-martin-f1-team-information-statistics/) [Aston Martin AMR26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/aston-martin-amr26-specs-facts/)

[![Aston Martin AMR26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AMR26-sideview-cut-330x72.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/AMR26-sideview-cut-scaled.png "P14 · Lance Stroll · Aston Martin Aston Martin AMR26")

15![Nico Hülkenberg](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Nico-Hulkenberg-2026.png)![Germany](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/de.svg?v=2)#27 [NicoHülkenberg](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/nico-hulkenberg/)**1:37.970**Q1+0.864 vs Bortoleto (Q1)

![Audi logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Audi-F1-Team-logo-330x112.png) [Audi](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/audi-f1-team-stats-info/) [Audi R26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/audi-r26-specs-facts/)

[![Audi R26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Audi-R26-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled-330x75.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Audi-R26-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled.png "P15 · Nico Hülkenberg · Audi Audi R26")

16![Oliver Bearman](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Oliver-Bearman-50.png)![United Kingdom](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/gb.svg?v=2)#87 [OliverBearman](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/oliver-bearman-f1-stats-info/)**1:37.980**Q1−0.253 vs Ocon (Q1)

![Haas logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Haas-logo-249x220.png) [Haas](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/haas-f1-team-information-statistics/) [Haas VF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/haas-vf-26-specs-facts/)

[![Haas VF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Haas-VF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x73.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Haas-VF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P16 · Oliver Bearman · Haas Haas VF-26")

17![Esteban Ocon](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Esteban-Ocon-2.png)![France](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/fr.svg?v=2)#31 [EstebanOcon](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/esteban-ocon-information-statistics/)**1:38.233**Q1+0.253 vs Bearman (Q1)

![Haas logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Haas-logo-249x220.png) [Haas](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/haas-f1-team-information-statistics/) [Haas VF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/haas-vf-26-specs-facts/)

[![Haas VF-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Haas-VF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x73.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Haas-VF-26-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P17 · Esteban Ocon · Haas Haas VF-26")

18![Alex Albon](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Alexander-Albon-2026.png)![Thailand](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/th.svg?v=2)#23 [AlexAlbon](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/alexander-albon-information-statistics/)**1:38.600**Q1+0.949 vs Sainz (Q1)

![Williams logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Williams-logo-330x184.png) [Williams](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/williams/) [Williams FW48](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/williams-fw48-specs-facts/)

[![Williams FW48](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Williams-FW48-transparent-cropped-normalised-330x74.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Williams-FW48-transparent-cropped-normalised.png "P18 · Alex Albon · Williams Williams FW48")

19![Valtteri Bottas](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Cadillac-F1-Team-Valtteri-Bottas.png)![Finland](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/fi.svg?v=2)#77 [ValtteriBottas](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/valtteri-bottas-information-statistics/)**1:38.611**Q1−0.322 vs Pérez (Q1)

![Cadillac logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Cadillac-logo.png) [Cadillac](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/cadillac-f1-team-stats-info/) [Cadillac MAC-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/cadillac-mac-26/)

[![Cadillac MAC-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Cadillac-F1-CF26-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x77.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Cadillac-F1-CF26-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P19 · Valtteri Bottas · Cadillac Cadillac MAC-26")

20![Sergio Pérez](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/sergio-perez-20.png)![Mexico](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/mx.svg?v=2)#11 [SergioPérez](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/sergio-perez/)**1:38.933**Q1+0.322 vs Bottas (Q1)

![Cadillac logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Cadillac-logo.png) [Cadillac](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/cadillac-f1-team-stats-info/) [Cadillac MAC-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/cadillac-mac-26/)

[![Cadillac MAC-26](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Cadillac-F1-CF26-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x77.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Cadillac-F1-CF26-transparent-normalised-levelled.png "P20 · Sergio Pérez · Cadillac Cadillac MAC-26")

21![Franco Colapinto](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Franco-Colapinto-2026-100.png)![Argentina](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/ar.svg?v=2)#43 [FrancoColapinto](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/franco-colapinto/)**1:37.179**Q1+0.005 vs Gasly (Q1)Grid penalty

![Alpine logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Alpine-logo-1440x900-1-330x206.png) [Alpine](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/alpine-f1-team/) [Alpine A526](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/alpine-a526-specs-facts/)

[![Alpine A526](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Alpine-A526-sideview-cut-330x75.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Alpine-A526-sideview-cut.png "P21 · Franco Colapinto · Alpine Alpine A526")

22![Arvid Lindblad](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/03/Oliver-Lindblad-50.png)![United Kingdom](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/plugins/motor-sport-results/images/flags-svg/gb.svg?v=2)#41 [ArvidLindblad](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/arvid-lindblad-f1-stats-facts/)**1:37.883**Q1+0.551 vs Lawson (Q1)Grid penalty

![Racing Bulls logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Racing-Bulls-logo-265x220.png) [Racing Bulls](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/racing-bulls-f1-stats-info/) [VCARB 03](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-cars/racing-bulls-vcarb-03/)

[![VCARB 03](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/VCARB-03-right-facing-cropped-330x74.png)](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/VCARB-03-right-facing-cropped.png "P22 · Arvid Lindblad · Racing Bulls VCARB 03")

Grid penalties

- **#6 Isack Hadjar** · 5 place grid penalty · Additional power unit element has been used
- **#43 Franco Colapinto** · 5 place grid penalty · Causing a collision + 10 place grid penalty · Additional power unit element has been used
- **#41 Arvid Lindblad** · 30 place grid penalty · Additional power unit elements have been used

### What's Your Podium Prediction for the Upcoming F1 Grand Prix?

![2026 Mexico City F1 GP](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/mx.svg?v=2)Mexico City Grand PrixMexico City · round 19 of 23

The Predictor F1-Fansite data model

Championship form and recent form. The starting grid joins in after qualifying, then the chances update.

1![Kimi Antonelli](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Kimi-Antonelli-2026.png)Kimi AntonelliMercedes · #12**38%**to win

2![Max Verstappen](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Max-Verstappen-2026.png)Max VerstappenRed Bull · #3**14%**to win

3![Charles Leclerc](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-Charles-Leclerc.png)Charles LeclercFerrari · #16**12%**to win

[Beat the Predictor](#f1fs-pp-play) [How it works](#f1fs-pp-how)

Who's on the podium?

Pick your top 3, then drag the number (or use the arrows) to set the order. You can edit until the race starts.

Scoring: 3 pts for a driver in the exact spot, 1 pt for the right driver in the wrong spot. A perfect podium earns the Oracle badge.

1 Select a driver… Alex Albon · Williams · #23 Arvid Lindblad · Racing Bulls · #41 Carlos Sainz · Williams · #55 Charles Leclerc · Ferrari · #16 Esteban Ocon · Haas · #31 Fernando Alonso · Aston Martin · #14 Franco Colapinto · Alpine · #43 Gabriel Bortoleto · Audi · #5 George Russell · Mercedes · #63 Isack Hadjar · Red Bull · #6 Kimi Antonelli · Mercedes · #12 Lance Stroll · Aston Martin · #18 Lando Norris · McLaren · #1 Lewis Hamilton · Ferrari · #44 Liam Lawson · Red Bull · #30 Max Verstappen · Red Bull · #3 Nico Hülkenberg · Audi · #27 Oliver Bearman · Haas · #87 Oscar Piastri · McLaren · #81 Pierre Gasly · Alpine · #10 Sergio Pérez · Cadillac · #11 Valtteri Bottas · Cadillac · #77 Yuki Tsunoda · Racing Bulls · #22

2 Select a driver… Alex Albon · Williams · #23 Arvid Lindblad · Racing Bulls · #41 Carlos Sainz · Williams · #55 Charles Leclerc · Ferrari · #16 Esteban Ocon · Haas · #31 Fernando Alonso · Aston Martin · #14 Franco Colapinto · Alpine · #43 Gabriel Bortoleto · Audi · #5 George Russell · Mercedes · #63 Isack Hadjar · Red Bull · #6 Kimi Antonelli · Mercedes · #12 Lance Stroll · Aston Martin · #18 Lando Norris · McLaren · #1 Lewis Hamilton · Ferrari · #44 Liam Lawson · Red Bull · #30 Max Verstappen · Red Bull · #3 Nico Hülkenberg · Audi · #27 Oliver Bearman · Haas · #87 Oscar Piastri · McLaren · #81 Pierre Gasly · Alpine · #10 Sergio Pérez · Cadillac · #11 Valtteri Bottas · Cadillac · #77 Yuki Tsunoda · Racing Bulls · #22

3 Select a driver… Alex Albon · Williams · #23 Arvid Lindblad · Racing Bulls · #41 Carlos Sainz · Williams · #55 Charles Leclerc · Ferrari · #16 Esteban Ocon · Haas · #31 Fernando Alonso · Aston Martin · #14 Franco Colapinto · Alpine · #43 Gabriel Bortoleto · Audi · #5 George Russell · Mercedes · #63 Isack Hadjar · Red Bull · #6 Kimi Antonelli · Mercedes · #12 Lance Stroll · Aston Martin · #18 Lando Norris · McLaren · #1 Lewis Hamilton · Ferrari · #44 Liam Lawson · Red Bull · #30 Max Verstappen · Red Bull · #3 Nico Hülkenberg · Audi · #27 Oliver Bearman · Haas · #87 Oscar Piastri · McLaren · #81 Pierre Gasly · Alpine · #10 Sergio Pérez · Cadillac · #11 Valtteri Bottas · Cadillac · #77 Yuki Tsunoda · Racing Bulls · #22

Save my podium & join free

A free account locks it in. We keep your picks while you sign up.

0 fans have predicted

Everyone's picks stay hidden until lights out, so no one can copy.

<details>

<summary>All 22 drivers: win, podium and points chances</summary>



| # | Driver | Win | Podium | Points | Why |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 | **Kimi Antonelli**Mercedes | **38%** | 79% | 100% | P1 in the championship · 4 podiums in the last 5 |
| 2 | **Max Verstappen**Red Bull | **14%** | 45% | 99% | P4 in the championship · 5 podiums in the last 5 |
| 3 | **Charles Leclerc**Ferrari | **12%** | 40% | 98% | P5 in the championship · 2 podiums in the last 5 |
| 4 | **Lewis Hamilton**Ferrari | **8.2%** | 28% | 93% | P3 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 5 | **George Russell**Mercedes | **7.1%** | 25% | 92% | P2 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5 |
| 6 | **Lando Norris**McLaren | **5.8%** | 21% | 87% | P6 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 7 | **Oscar Piastri**McLaren | **3.4%** | 13% | 72% | P7 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 8 | **Isack Hadjar**Red Bull | **2.8%** | 11% | 67% | P8 in the championship · 1 podium in the last 5 |
| 9 | **Liam Lawson**Racing Bulls | **1.8%** | 7.3% | 50% | P9 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 10 | **Arvid Lindblad**Racing Bulls | **1.1%** | 4.5% | 34% | P11 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 11 | **Nico Hülkenberg**Audi | **1.0%** | 3.8% | 28% | P14 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 12 | **Oliver Bearman**Haas | **0.6%** | 2.6% | 21% | P13 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 13 | **Pierre Gasly**Alpine | **0.6%** | 3.0% | 25% | P10 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 14 | **Esteban Ocon**Haas | **0.6%** | 2.5% | 22% | P18 in the championship · no podium in the last 5 |
| 15 | **Franco Colapinto**Alpine | **0.6%** | 2.2% | 18% | P12 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 3 DNFs |
| 16 | **Fernando Alonso**Aston Martin | **0.6%** | 2.1% | 17% | P16 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 17 | **Gabriel Bortoleto**Audi | **0.5%** | 2.0% | 16% | P15 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 18 | **Lance Stroll**Aston Martin | **0.5%** | 1.5% | 13% | P23 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 3 DNFs |
| 19 | **Carlos Sainz**Williams | **0.3%** | 1.5% | 15% | P17 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 20 | **Valtteri Bottas**Cadillac | **0.3%** | 1.3% | 11% | P22 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 2 DNFs |
| 21 | **Sergio Pérez**Cadillac | **0.2%** | 1.4% | 12% | P21 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 1 DNF |
| 22 | **Alex Albon**Williams | **0.2%** | 1.2% | 12% | P19 in the championship · no podium in the last 5, 3 DNFs |

Podium = chance of a top-three finish, Points = chance of a top-ten. Rounded; the win column adds up to 100%.

</details>

Season standings · 2026

P [The Predictormodel](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-prediction-game/#f1fs-pp-how)42 pts

1 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/86b835decfbf8aef58a99c923b91f864.jpg?ver=1792413767)![An Sionnach](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/ie.svg?v=2)An Sionnach](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/an-sionnach/)40 pts

2 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/c1e5f408b0f1fe4561f86f4146016382.jpg?ver=1792416904)![Shroppyfly](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/gb.svg?v=2)Shroppyfly](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/shroppyfly/)39 pts

3 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Senna.jpg)![Nobodysperfect](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/nl.svg?v=2)Nobodysperfect](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/nobodysperfect/)36 pts

4 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/IMG_17701-1-150x150.jpg)![Leopold Pleijsier](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/nl.svg?v=2)Leopold Pleijsier](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/leopold-pleijsier/)30 pts

5 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/569aa8c10bd14829d5f9fb2f2ccb7c5d.jpg?ver=1792416904)![Jere Jyrälä](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/fi.svg?v=2)Jere Jyrälä](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/jere-jyrala/)21 pts

6 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/0f32bd91c5dc279d9b26c5ff5bf23777.jpg?ver=1792772405)![Casparovic](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/nl.svg?v=2)Casparovic](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/casparovic/)18 pts

7 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/05a552c350f0f1d2c7b6d2b14c0fedfd.jpg?ver=1792416904)ipeluri](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/ipeluri/)12 pts

8 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/לנדו-נוריס-150x150.jpg)![yhee](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/il.svg?v=2)yhee](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/yhee/)10 pts

9 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/e3fbbf8e92e2b864dcc33a73103b6324.jpg?ver=1792413767)Juandiez](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/juandiez/)10 pts

10 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/d070e43ee2b726bc81389529727f6379.jpg?ver=1792970404)Kasra](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/kasra/)8 pts

11 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/eebf8b5890aa894d7fea9a207c10aa17.jpg?ver=1792785294)bearman's](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/bearmans/)7 pts

12 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/3b967948bdf7732f9af15f5a4ba7d26e.jpg?ver=1792407903)Demireins](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/demireins/)7 pts

13 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Porche-917-150x150.jpg)![Mo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/nl.svg?v=2)Mo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/mo/)6 pts

14 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/fbe4a672e507b6cc385e6367c716c56f.jpg?ver=1792946105)Raceworks Media](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/raceworks-media/)6 pts

15 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/77a6caf8bc542e0bece32f481506c1f3.jpg?ver=1792538404)Buzzjohn](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/buzzjohn/)6 pts

16 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/8239ff267821392689c2c2058cd865de.jpg?ver=1792416904)Rahmi Can](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/rahmi-can/)6 pts

17 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/cc6a1ae0832f9bc5f039412f26a3ec81.jpg?ver=1792413767)Killabee](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/killabee/)6 pts

18 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/39736a6b5ceb9d349cc70e6213b0ffdb.jpg?ver=1792413767)Carlo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/carlo/)6 pts

19 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/2e9743238ab91d70c9c4e11479dce6c2.jpg?ver=1792413768)![MKL](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/themes/f1fansite/images/flags-svg/pl.svg?v=2)MKL](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/mkl/)6 pts

20 [![](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/litespeed/avatar/3b1e363657d551be296c71738828ef2d.jpg?ver=1792413768)Sudhjd](https://www.f1-fansite.com/fan/sudhjd/)6 pts

How the Predictor works

No bookmakers, no odds: every number comes from the F1-Fansite results database. Each driver gets a strength score from the factors below; the race is then simulated 10,000 times and we count how often each driver wins, finishes on the podium or scores points. It does not know about weather or reliability, and it says so. Grid penalties count as soon as the official starting grid is in.

**60%**Championship formPoints this season, relative to the leader.

**40%**Recent formThe last five finishes; a DNF counts as P20.

**0%**Starting gridHow often each grid slot has won over the last eight seasons. Joins after qualifying.

Before qualifying the model is honest about the odds: three or four candidates share most of the chance. After qualifying the grid takes over and the call sharpens.

**13/18**winners called

**1.9/3**podium drivers per race

**2**exact podiums

**74**prediction points

Calibration this season: when it said 7%, it happened 0% of the time; when it said 15%, it happened 7% of the time.

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About the author

## [Leopold](https://www.f1-fansite.com/author/leopold-pleijsier/)

Leopold Pleijsier founded F1-Fansite.com in 2001 and has followed Formula 1 since the early 1980s. He writes about daily F1 news, race weekends, drivers and the sport’s history.

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## One F1 fan comment on “Starting Grid 2026 Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix”

1. I'm positive Max can win on pure pace.000

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[![Qualifying Report \& Results 2026 Bahrain F1 Grand Prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SI202610030291_hires_jpeg_24bit_rgb-308x220.jpg)Previous PostQualifying Report & Results 2026 Bahrain F1 Grand Prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-result/qualifying-report-results-2026-bahrain-f1-grand-prix/)

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[![Race Report \& Results 2026 Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/SI202610040319_hires_jpeg_24bit_rgb-330x220.jpg) Next Post Race Report & Results 2026 Bahrain Formula 1 Grand Prix](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-result/race-report-results-2026-bahrain-formula-1-grand-prix/)

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After round 18 of 23 · [United States GP](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-result/race-report-results-2026-united-states-f1-grand-prix/)

| Pos. | F1 Drivers | | | Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 |  | ![Kimi Antonelli](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Kimi-Antonelli-2026.png) | [Kimi Antonelli](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/kimi-antonelli/)Mercedes · #12 | 365 |
| 2 |  | ![George Russell](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/George-Russell-2026.png) | [George Russell](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/george-russell-information-statistics/)Mercedes · #63 | 242−123 |
| 3 |  | ![Lewis Hamilton](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Lewis-Hamilton-2026.png) | [Lewis Hamilton](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-drivers/lewis-hamilton/)Ferrari · #44 | 241−1 |

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After round 18 of 23 · [United States GP](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-result/race-report-results-2026-united-states-f1-grand-prix/)

| Pos. | F1 Teams | | | Points |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 1 |  | ![Mercedes logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/Mercedes-Logo.svg_-220x220.webp) | [Mercedes](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/mercedes/)![Mercedes W17](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/mercedes-w17-transparent-normalised-levelled-330x77.png) | 607 |
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| 3 | ▲1Up 1 place since the previous round | ![Red Bull logo](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/Red-Bull-logo-330x126.png) | [Red Bull](https://www.f1-fansite.com/f1-teams/red-bull-racing/)![Red Bull RB22](https://www.f1-fansite.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/08/Red-Bull-RB22-transparent-cropped-normalised-levelled-330x75.png) | 355−119 |

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